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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum

WDC 157.75

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Nov 14 3:59 PM EST

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To: Z Analyzer who wrote (6196)	5/1/1999 4:42:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (3) of 9256

Gentlemen; I am slowly but surely returning to the land of the living. Still in a recovery mode from jet lag but am settled down in a time zone (+ or - a couple of hours) for a while. (Evidence that my circadian rythm is a bit FUBAR is the timing of this post which = 4:45 am local time.) Z, you asked: <<Are we likely to begin seeing a slowing of the very rapid aerial density increases of the last few years which came about as MR and GMR appeared? How far can GMR extend and is the next major evolutionary step micro-actuation would still seems to be a couple years away >> Not at all. IBM's roadmap shows a continuance of average 60% gains in each of the next five years. We are only just seeing the kinds of specs brought about by the onset of GMR coincident with the PICO slider. Focus is on track density with gains there realized through much tighter controls on head geometry and fly height. IBM says they will have a read track width of .45 micrometer by next year with a read gap of .16 micrometer. (for about 10 Gbytes psi) They also say we will see an internal media data rate of over 40 MBytes/sec next year, crossing the line at 100 Mbytes/sec in 2002. <<How far can GMR extend and is the next major evolutionary step micro-actuation would still seems to be a couple years away?>> IBM, again, has shown charts extending GMR to 40 GBytes PSI. That same chart suggests that at 40 GB/PSI the read gap width is about .125 of a micrometer and the sputtered magnetic film is about 30 angstroms. Incidentally, a major component of achieving the above is much lower fly heights. This means smoother and smoother media surfaces. Maybe that is why IBM will not designing any new drives that employ aluminum substrates this year. If you want to look for a media winner look for the one that has an advantage in rapidly deploying glass substrates and thinner and smoother surfaces. IBM is already taking the lion's share of output from Hoya and Nippon Sheet Glass. They are the only two in major production today. It seems that after years and years of promise, so-called "alternative" substrates will see their rapid deployment over the next couple of years and will displace aluminum based disks. Glass is the likely choice. Anyone know what I mean when I say "Asahii"? As far as I know no one has publicly committed to microactuation yet. It is at least two years away IMO. I'll try to comment on some of your other questions later. I just yawned and intend to take advantage of it. Best, Stitch

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