RE: Are you strictly trading or a long term buyer?
I go long and hold until there is a significant run up, say >100% or until I have LT capital gains. Then I normally sell a portion, say 20% to 30% some times more. I apply this to my entire portfolio. I call it pruning. For high beta net stocks you get to do this quite often. My Yahoo and Amazon positions are now at a zero cost basis.
RE: Where do you see the price in 5 years, and the volume and earnings at that point?
Assuming the bull market is intact 5 years from now, and e*commerce establishes itself as the dominant force in retailing, like I believe it will, then a market cap in excess of $300 billion is not out of the question.
RE: I still have the idea that it's overvalued, so I'm trying to learn what a buyer here would think about the long term, and why.
It's overvalued in traditional terms. But we are in a transitional economy. In a transitional economy the old rules don't apply.
The best way to value Amazon is by its growth in revenue and customer acquisition. At the end of this transition, when the dust clears, so to speak, traditional valuations will reassert themselves.
On the new economy:
worth.com
Last paragraph:
"For as long as the economy remains in its present transitional phase, the struggles between the greedy and the nervous are likely to produce even greater volatility than we've seen in the past 12 months. But at least investors need no longer worry if the new economy is real or just the figment of a few futurists' overheated imaginations. The question now is whether investors understand just how far-reaching the transformation will be. "Certain Internet stocks may be overhyped," says Waite, "but the Internet is underhyped." Alan Greenspan couldn't have said it better himself." |
