Larry, let me add that even though the numbers get mind-boggling for Dell (ie., projecting this unreal, almost unbelievable growth rates: revenue at 30% p.a. with a company selling 200B in annual revs)...some factors have to be kept in mind..
(1) China, India, Latin America will be, in all likelihood, serviced by their own massive, multiple site plant facilities..these businesses are distinct from Dell USA (in other words, problems in hiring in Austin doesn't mean a lot in Beijing)...Having enormous facilities on several continents will allow Dell to acheive sustained high growth, even when the numbers (75B a year, 100B a year, etc.) get too hard to fathom....
(2) Dell could buy growth (Gateway....dare I say, Compaq, or parts of.....), or take over others' PC manufacturing (IBM)..Dell is a cash machine...at some point, acquisition(s) are not out of the question...(Especially if a continued fast growth is a priority of Dell's management team...which it seems to be...)...Certainly, it would seem that Rollins and Michael Dell are going to be around for many years (likely even in 2008)..
(3) The internet allows for massive businesses to be set-up rather quickly (witness Amazon, AOL, etc. rev. growth)...such businesses as financing, ISP revenues, etc. are relatively easy set-up, high revenue ops...
(4) We are assuming that hardware sales (ASPs) will continue to head downward at a relentless pace....what if this pace slowed, or even flattened (or went upwards for a while)...this, too, for grow the revenue pie, and, obviously, lessen Dell's % of the overall market (given the growth rate I've implied)..
Again, I know my revenue estimates are aggressive, but think about how it could be accomplished in say, 2005 if Dell has multiple plants in Brazil, China, India, Nashville, Europe (Ireland and the continent)...perhaps in Russia....think also, many other product and service lines....
Just a few more things to nibble on... |
