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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?
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To: Allen Plyler who wrote (2131)3/4/1997 8:31:00 PM
From: Stingray   of 13594
 
> Don't you remember with AOL, numbers don't matter unless they sound > good?

That's so true. I don't have any kind of position in AOL but it has
been a very interesting soap opera that is unfolding. The stock price
is outrageously high compared to the value of the company but that
doesn't seem to matter because the stock price now bears no
relationship to the companys future prospects, it has just become
a kind of high stakes poker game between people who think they can
make money selling short and the people who would like to put a
squeeze on. Using technical analysis on this stock is very dangerous
because the techniques are well understood by those who would
manipulate the stock and I believe that if they wanted to create a
buy or sell signal which the TA crowd would bite on they could do
it.

I have a pretty good idea where the stock is going to end up but I
have no idea how it will get there. The people who own this stock will
only sell when their perception of the value of the company falls.
If consistently losing money, being exposed for misleading accounting
techniques, being sued across the country and losing what little
goodwill you have with your customer base doesn't do it I don't know
what will. It doesn't matter how many people think that AOL is the
most overpriced stock on the NYSE as long as the people who own the
stock are not of this opinion.

This stock is one of the purest speculations out there and trying
to predict the price of AOL stock is like trying to determine the
value of a collectable stamp or baseball card, just because it has
very little underlying value does not mean that people will not pay a
high price for it.

Good luck to anyone who thinks they can make money on this stock
but beware, there are a lot of wolves out there who are looking for
a few sheep to fleece.
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