To "Short, or not to Short'' - is THAT the question ? $16.50 Oil soon ?
Is PaineWebber Giving up on Oil Stocks? iionline.com
Bob Hirschfeld
{{Is PaineWebber oil analyst Frank Knuettel throwing in the towel on the energy stock rally? .....
...The analyst said the primary reason for the downgrades was his view that oil prices will be weak for the next 30 to 45 days. Asked how far he expected oil prices to decline, the analyst said, 'about $1.50 or so.' That would bring the price per barrel to about $16.50.
Kneuttel also said the downgraded stocks had performed very well recently,...In other words, he downgraded the oil stocks which 'ran the most.' }}
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Too far too fast ?
What will $16.50 Oil do ?
What will the Street do ''if/when'' Oil retreats to $16 - since they are sitting on the fastest, largest gains in OSX history - a 50%+ one month pop ?
Are we truly in the ''deadzone'' now - between earnings periods, and isn't it obvious here, to even the ''newbies'' that the initial (keyword being - initial) OPEC compliance #'s are allready known and completely factored into the both the OSX stock prices and obviously Crude Oil prices themselves ?
Since the initial OPEC compliance numbers are backdated/time lagging - and the answer is allready known on the INITIAL compliance numbers- being that the reporting period for the May 10th release is now over; isn't the real DANGER here - in how the Markets will react to the 2nd compliance report in June - which will reportedly show Venezeulan and perhaps others all ready cheating ?
CHEATING - will this be the Bears Mantra' ?
Will CHEATING be the Short Selling catalyst, or will the lack of fundamentals such as low utilization, dayrates, falling backlogs, lack of new major projects and most importantly lack of positive earnings - be the lynch-pin to another BEAR/Hedge Fund Short Selling raid on the seemingly fundamentally defenseless OSX stocks ?
Is this the ultimate "BULL-trap'' ?
Is anyone listening to the Oil Pit Traders ? Has their comments on Oil Prices being propped up above $18, on basically technically oriented short covering (of which their is little left to support prices - when profit taking occurs off of the initial OPEC report) ?
Has this not positioned the OSX stocks to be victimized, yet once again by the major Institutions stampeeding into a ''last man out the door - loses'' -- profit taking run & SELLING run - off of any negative Oilpatch news and even off of any positive news ? Hasn't the patch had a history of late of the Street taking profits off of the good news ?
Will the intially ''positive'' OPEC compliance report - be the Bull-Trap the Street is waiting for - to sell off of - into the ''seemingly good news ?
Is this 50%+ too - far/too fast run setting up to be the Streets hardest, fastest profit taking reaction yet seen ?
Did anyone read the Oil & Gas Journal article on the incredible imbalance in Crude futures contracts and its looming bearish cloud, and the plate being set for a substantial Crude Price retracement off of technical profit taking ?
Is anyone paying attention to the CEO's of the Major International Oil Companies (since they control the OSX companies fate) and their strong doubts of the SUSTAINABILITY of crude prices here ?
Is this the time for emotion-neutral (VBG) ''traders/investors'' to either take profits, or to even jump on the Short Selling Mo-Mo Bandwagon that looks very probable ?
Has anyone caught on to the fact here; that these recent Brokerage downgrades - upgrades are primarially to allow profit taking by the Houses largest Private Banking/Institutional clients - and that the small fish allways get eaten in this upgrade/downgrade game ?
Will anyone be able to resist even these easy $2-3 gimmies on shorting the high flyers of late ?
Don't ''Switch Hitters'' gain an incredible advantage by being able to step on over to the ''other side'' of the plate - when the curveballs (or, Sliders) start breaking in the ''wrong'' direction (VBG) ?
Are we about to be thrown a "Curve Ball'' here in the OSX " ?
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....what separates the minor leaguers from the Major Leaguers - is their ability to hit the "Breaking Ball''....
Is it coming ? Can you hit the ''bender'' (VBG) ?
"Emotionally neutral'' - just here to make money - and it don't matter from which side of the plate it's made ! - long, or short - there be money in the 'patch !
Reportedly; one savvy trader is long some undervalued individual Energy Stocks and subsectors; but short some sitting duck high flyers - fwiw.
Do a couple of ''Black Hat'' Hedge Fund Traders ''know'' that Fidelity et al's Elephant March of accumulation through the Banana-Fields of Oilpatch Land are over - and now the Shorts have no buying resistance to stand in their way ? - are the individual investors about to get whipsawed and steamrolled once again ?
Hooo Hah ~
...bad as I wanna be
your pal,
$lider
....comments ? |
