Gottfried,
It would seem like a sure thing that the fed will raise rates when Asia is CLEARLY on the road to recovery. Just a month ago, remember, AG said he wasn't sure that Japan had bottomed. When he is sure, it would be a practical bet that they will raise, even if just 1/4 point. It will prick the balloon a bit. I am as bullish and greedy as anyone but I would welcome it.
Also, if the fed is going to ease, it has about 12 months and no more. Election day is 18 months away. I think it is likely we get action in the next year.
Meanwhile, this action would temporarily affect equip stock prices, but it would seem very bright to buy on that dip in a big way.
I am going to take an initial position in Nvls Monday, with the idea that it could be tough for a few months for the stock, but this could be the last decent buying opportunity. Hard to tell. I will add to klic also, and plan to keep adding on any further weakness in 2-3 point increments. A word of warning: I am always early, so it may be that they get stupid low in the fall before a strong rebound. |
