Larry,
Those projections are what caused many to hold on to stocks after the glut started showing last year, thinking the trend would resume shortly. The plunge was just more severe than people projected,however, it seems that the overall trend is returning. We're all familiar with the factors that caused the aberration, OPEC over production, Asian crisis, and warm winters. I wonder if, not only has the trend been reestablished, but has the timetable for reaching world production peak been moved forward as a result of the reactions to the glut. Looking a couple of years down the road, will production again rise faster than demand, or will the cutbacks, shutins, etc, cause a situation in which supply will have a very difficult time keeping up with demand? It seems to me that all the factors have been re-established, growing demand, mature fields, but now we have the after effects of the glut adding to the future imbalance. Hope so anyway, I would love to see long term growth of 5-7 years or forever, in the companies we all know and love.
Mike |
