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Gold/Mining/Energy : Daytrading Canadian stocks in Realtime

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To: the Chief who wrote (10485)5/2/1999 6:41:00 PM
From: keith massey  Read Replies (2) of 62348
 
Chief...thanks for trying to set the thread straight. This thread has gone downhill fast in the past couple of weeks and I hope we can get it back to its former glory.

One of my absolute biggest pet peeves on the thread other than hype and BS is a certain technique I have see used by several people on the thread. In my opinion in the long run this technique is certain death for anyone that uses it on a regular basis.

Trying to catch a falling knife!!!!!!

This is the technique of throwing in low ball bids at a random cheap level (not based on historical large support levels) on fast movers trying to get some stock cheap and hopefully flip it quick. THIS DRIVES ME NUTS EVERY TIME I SEE IT. For example, MCF is at $11 and someone posts...I threw in a stink bid at $10.20, hopefully the stock dips and I get filled. If the stock drops from $11 to $10.20 that means it has big downward momentum. Unless $10.20 was a big support level the stock now has a greater probability of going lower and may never recover. Although people get lucky once in a while with these low ball bids one of these times the stock will blow right through their $10.20 price and they get filled and before they can enter the stop loss the stock will be at $5 and they are out a ton of money. I am posting this because I got burned several times when I was starting out trying to catch falling knives and learned from my mistakes.

My advice is to either wait for momentum to slow and the stock to base for a while or better yet...wait for momentum to turn around.

When I break this rule....

If I think a given level is going to be a huge support level and it is sinking towards this level on lower and lower volume I sometimes put in a low ball bid at this support level and watch close and set stops right after the fill. Another good example is throwing in a low ball bid near the gap up price at 9:30 (Central time) after the stock has gapped up...ran strong..and is pulling back. Prices near the gap (80% retraction) form very strong support levels and this is often a good technique.

Throwing in random low ball bids in my opinion is really just gambling and I don't like to gamble when I play stocks. If I wanted gamble I would walk across my street to the Grand Casino (Winnipeg) and play black jack. Of course I am a licensed black jack dealer and count cards so really that isn't even true gambling since the odds are actually in my favour. Maybe I'll just play the slots.

Best Regards
KEITH


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