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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 219.86

-1.8%

11:17 AM EST

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To: Bill F. who wrote (45525)	5/2/1999 9:45:00 PM
From: phbolton	Read Replies (2) of 53903

Tad/Fab/Bill (1) I agree that MP3 (or whatever the final format is) will be the next big thing and that it will have almost no effect on Micron other than some of its competitors will make money on it, the rio is a lot smaller than a casette player-3 1/2" x 2 1/2" x 5/8" and the Samsung demo is closer to the size of a credit card (2) There is no reason why there has to be another up cycle in DRAM. The last big spike was due to a number of events (glue factory fire, etc) that may never happen again. Also, non-embedded DRAM in low price PCs has a limited future. The system on a chips that Fab mentions already exist in demo form. There may be "chip cycles" but there need not be cycles for each component. (3) This downturn in prices is almost unprecedented. The ASP has dropped almost 50% in 2 months or so. As Bill says this is gonna be real bad. All those rosy models of MU's future had ASPs at 7.50 or so at the end of 99. (4) Geez, I've almost talked myself into a more bearish position.

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