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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 665.67-0.9%Nov 17 4:00 PM EST
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To: Jerry Olson who wrote (12643)5/3/1999 7:32:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.  Read Replies (2) of 99985
 
Hello OJ,

Well, you dragged me out of my cave.

Do you agree that the current condition of the market is mania?
If not, I can understand your approach, but if yes, then how can YOU tell when it's gonna end, and keep your fingers from being burned?

As to AMZN. Look at their balance sheet. Keeping the current rate of losses would put this pos in a serious danger of collapsing.
Previously I thought that in the best case scenario the company will justify last year's prices eventually, but now I can see no way this company can be more then marginally profitable. And that's my best case scenario. This company now trades at 15 times its worth from 12 months ago, and if there was any change in its LT prospects in that period I think it was to the worse.
I thought it was a very bad investment at 1/15 the current price. Why should I change my mind? Granted, I was wrong. But no evidence was presented to make me change my mind. At SPX 1350 I can do without LT holdings, or do you believe that the S&P stocks can double their EPS in three-four years?
Do you think AMZN could earn $2B in even one of the next ten years to give the current market cap of $28B even a remote excuse?

ATG
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