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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 5.877

-2.6%

3:59 PM EST

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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (1872)	5/3/1999 9:38:00 AM
From: DaveMG	Read Replies (3) of 34857

I mean 300 million by the end of 2000, yes. The current number is above 160 million and should easily top 200 million by this year's end. I'm just gonna keep plugging away here. I hope you don't mind.. Those are really spectacular numbers, although I suppose if you look at things in terms of percentages we would be seeing quite a slowdown in the growth rate by next year. And these are subs correct? And if 40-50% of phones sold are replacements then in y2K the estimate would be some 160-200mil GSM phones alone, without CDMA or TDMA. Do you know how many GSM phones were sold in 1998? And do you know what is considered to be the total carrying capacity of all existing GSM networks? Will there have to be huge infrastructure additions to meet this demand? And what about GPRS and EDGE? I've never seen any studies documenting how all this data will affect capacity. I've said this before but I wonder how long we can expect this phone upgrade thing to go on? I suppose as greater and greater data capabilities are added to all these networks new apps will be developed which will require new devices. My suspicion though is that within about three to four years and possibly even sooner even the most basic models will have specs that are more than sufficient for most users, although once again it's likely that many people will have more than one wireless device. Finlands' 80% penetration rate is often touted as an example of where things are going but I wonder if the fact that Nokia is the leading light of Finnish industry has anything to do with the extent of this infatuation? It seems likely to me that if these numbers really have some relationship to reality that the landscape is probably not going to get much more competitive than it is right now for a while. This type of growth will support more than one success story. Has Nokia made public their estimate of the number of handsets they expect to produce this year? I'm still not convinced that GSM will ultimately completely dominate 2G. I would like to see some info on comparative costs/capacity for GSM/GPRS/EDGE and CDMAone/2000. At some point cost will have to matter.And what type of performance advantages will WCDMA ultimately have if any, and when will WCDMA really be a viable alternative? My giess is that NTT's implementation will slip and so far it looks VERY VERY expensive. I'd like to find a way to tone down this QCOM stuff and still be able to discuss it. Hopefully that'll be possibe. It's gonna take some effort from all sides. And Qualcomm's chipset & handset sales grew by around 24% during this period According to QCOM chipsets went from 5 mil in Q1 to 9 mil in Q2 so there must be some misunderstanding. I too am skeptical of QCOMs handset plan because I don't see how they can ultimately succeed without making an all out effort which I don't think makes much sense. Since we know however that these guys are not stupid we can presume they've considered all these issues and that they must have their reasons. Perhaps they feel the need the need to keep the division so that they have an deeper ongoing understanding of the issues that manufacturers face, or perhaps they feel they can cocntinue to make money at it because of their built in margin advantages due to lack of royalties and the ASIC leverage. And they've made it clear that all options are on the table in other words they'll sell it if they need to. DMG

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