Hello. I've been following this thread now for awhile and decided to jump in with my two cents (and 1,000 shares) worth. First, my compliments to all on the contents of this thread. The majority of the contributors offer very insightful information and thought provoking conversation - Normann being the exception it seems.
As far as what's happening to our stock; as someone once said "timing is everything". The price has seen a range of from 4.5 to 15.5 in the last year. However, the median (not the average) for the past year is about 7.5. I'm sure some of the TA guys could refine this more precisely, but the point being that even at 6.75 we are not far below the (past) 52-week "expected" price. Also, if you take a look at what's happened in the storage sector for the past month you'll discover that AXC is not alone in seeing it's price being depressed. For the period between Feb 3 and March 4, this is what has happened to some other storage technology stocks.
Western Digital - down 19%
Iomega - down 13%
Seagate - down 7 %
EMC - down 6%
Ampex has dropped 13% and the NASDAQ composite has dropped 4% during this period. Basically, AXC is doing nothing terribly unusual compared to its brothers in the sector in this time frame. As has been discussed in prior posts, small caps are generally being left at the table right now. That will change. Over all, my opinion on this issue is that it has very good upside potential with KM technology and not much downside risk - even if KM fails to materialize. The fundamentals, without KM, would support an "expected" price of $15 to $20 within two years. Factoring in KM and its impact is difficult because the crystal ball isn't all that clear on evolving and competing technologies and the ever-present "momentum" factor. By that I mean getting an entire industry to change the way they do things is not an easy task. A truly better mousetrap must be not only developed but then it must indeed catch more mice at a lower cost and with minimum conversion effort before it will sell. KM may be that better mousetrap for Ampex but it has to be marketed properly and carefully. If it gets a black eye it takes a long time, if ever, before it heals. As many on this thread have already pointed out - patience is indeed a virtue if you own this stock.
Lee |
