Here are my current guesses on the prospective acquiring party (or parties):
1. News Corp. (NYSE:NWS), or its subsidiary, New World Communications Group. New World Communications owns 30% of Guthy-Renker, and if it acquired National Media, it would become the clear leader in infomercials.
2. Liberty Media (NASDAQ:LBTYA), a subsidiary of Tele-Communications, Inc. (TCI) (NASDAQ:TCOMA). Liberty holds an equity interest in numerous cable TV companies, such as QVC, HSN, Discovery, The Learning Channel, Time Warner. They are involved in infomercial programming and direct marketing via television.
3. Viacom (AMEX:VIA/B, VIA). Viacom is involved in a variety of entertainment and publishing areas, and of course its cable programming. It might try to take a position in the infomercial market by buying NM.
===========================
Here's a wild speculation on a possible scenario. The previous times I have mentioned an impending 13D filing and buyout announcement were preceded by accumulation of the stock. But, instead of all the stock being bought by one party, several parties were buying, so none had exceeded 5%.
Since last Thursday's frenzied buying (and especially this week), some of these buyers exceeded 5% controlling interest. Since they have been intending to take control of the company, they need to file a 13D. It must be filed within 10 business days following an increase in ownership above the 5% threshhold. That's why I am as sure as ever that there will be a 13D filed by at least one party by the end of next week.
If there are more than two parties with an interest to acquire National Media, there may be a bidding war, which would be great for NM shareholders.
A more unusual situation would entail a joint acquisition of the company by more than two parties. For example, News Corp. and Liberty Media (or TCI) agree to each acquire a 30% stake in National Media. All shareholders except Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE:SFE), which owns about 15%, sell out. Safeguard acquires another 15%, leaving about 10% for insiders. Then, the 3 acquiring companies take National Media private.
Here's an even more interesting twist that Safeguard shareholders would appreciate: In a year or two, Safeguard takes National Media public.
TDW |
