these are the downtrendlines that we have to contend with
decisionpoint.com
At the bottom is what the EWT is saying about Gold and SIlver.
He is pretty bearish on Gold and I getting nervous about this scenerio of a break of the 270 level.
I just sold 63% of my PAAS on Friday, and will probably sell another 20-25% very soon. keepin only a little , I am also getting ready to sell my ABX and only keep HM.
There is a chance that the xau and gold have alot of upside but. My work makes the situation too uncertain with too much risk reward for me in the next 3-5 months.
I hope I'm wrong for all the gold bugs in Myth land....but...
If you talk negative fundamentals on Gold....It gives you no interest, their are store and insurance costs associated with it.
and if you get no capital appreciation then you only have insurance, whihc you pay insurance on.
The price level at which mines can profitable mine gold continues to go down as well.
The fact that oil is through the roof and gold and silver have done essentially nothing tells me we have another leg on the downside.
If we were to get a decline to 200 or even 240-250 and it had the marks of a big bottom. I'll be putting mucho bucks into the precious metals.
May EWT
.
GOLD & SILVER
Silver completed Intermediate wave (1) down at $4.81.
Since the decline from the $5.82 high appears to be
five waves, we are confident that this is the first
subwave of Primary wave C that will draw prices
below $3.48 before it ends. This remains EWT's
ultimate objective for silver. Near term, wave (2)
produced a rally, as allowed for last month, and has
satisfied the minimum expectations for a complete
upward correction. Thus, wave (3), which is usually
the longest and strongest wave in an impulse sequence,
is now due on the downside.
For the time being, wave (2) retains the option to trace
out a more complex corrective pattern, possibly
carrying it up toward $5.38-$5.43, the 62%
retracement of wave (1) and a fourth wave of lesser
degree. Such price action would only temporarily delay
the onset of wave (3).
Gold continues to meander sideways in its 15-month
trading range between $270.75 and $315.20. Last
month, it approached the bottom of this range, and
EWT commented that bullish sentiment had reached
“the lowest level among professionals toward gold in 7
1/2 years.” This sentiment extreme suggested that gold
would try to bounce from near its early April lows.
Prices did push up to a high of $285.65, but this measly
3% move from $277 transformed sentiment from 15%
bulls to 53% bulls in four weeks! The April and
October 1998 gold tops each sported 10-day sentiment
readings of 58% and 56%, respectively. The ability of
this minor bounce to push sentiment so quickly to a
level that has coincided with past market tops reveals
that professionals are far too eager to jump on the
bullish bandwagon. This type of behavior is bearish and
supports our long-standing wave count. It is an excel-lent
setup for a decisive break of $270.
Gold continues to track the two near-term Elliott wave
patterns discussed in April. The current bounce is
either a small-degree second wave, or it is wave (E) of
a Primary wave B contracting triangle. Both counts
indicate that the current rise is a correction that will
end under $305.20, and both portend another decline,
ultimately carrying gold beneath $200.
In April, gold and silver stocks took a temporary respite
from their bear markets. The XAU has rallied a bit
more than we thought probable, retracing nearly 50%
of the decline from the 87.52 high. Our expectation is
for this bounce to end soon and lead to another leg
down. However, the maximum potential of this ad-vance
should be 75.65, which is the 62% retracement
of the decline from 87.52 and very near the January 11
spike high. |
