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Message 2723 indicated a switch from short term neutral to a downward bias in SFE with an initial target the 50 day m/a at $68-70. SFE continues to go down in lockstep with the weakness in internet stocks while cyclicals/value continuing higher as outlined. The 50 day m/a changes slightly each day, now the # is $70 with that number moving toward $71-$72 by the end of the week. For now, I would use $70-$72 as an initial target. Microsoft is holding $80 by a thread, bears watching as the Nasdaq 100 [QQQ] would be headed for more serious trouble if MSFT fails $80. For the adventuresome, a short with a stop on that break could be a decent trade, or continue to look at the QQQ for short opportunities [especially if it breaks last weeks low around $104 1/2] against a long cyclical/value position. If the Internet stocks have a major and serious break, it would be preceded by a period of eroding prices which turns euphoria, to complacency, then concern and finally panic. Whether this current phase will go that far, remains to be seen, but the current environment remains dangerous for the groups outlined in previous posts until proven otherwise. Currently Dow +93, Nasdaq -20. OT. will discontinue posts for SWS $59, as it is now considerably beyond recommended buy point. Will mention again, if it should drop back down and technicals still look positive. Strong hold for now. Update: MSFT just broke $80 now $79 1/2, QQQ 105 3/4 Mike |
