Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: The Ox who wrote (43760)	5/3/1999 12:58:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

< I think it's too early to be loading up large short side positions. > I agree; What I see is an opportunity - especially at the opens; to gently push on the ''door.'' If the ''door'' flies open - the SHORTS will rush in like a SWAT TEAM raid. If there is ''resistance'' and the door doesn't just ''fly'' open - I retreat -take a tic, or two either way... Bottomline; only way to play the shortside is on a ''BUMRUSH'' basis. But - doubt not, that the shorts ARE outside the door & they want back in. The trend is indeed our friend - laggards are disappearing daily, HOFF had a little 15% one day pop, OMNI a short covering 33% blip - was a great short back to $5. As these laggards disappear and we see some of the E&P small/micro caps moving 40-60% in the last week or so (RRC CRK et al) - don't see a whole lot of new buying opps... I would hate to be just making a new entry here... Strong Oil prices are the ''bait'' for the OSX stocks - but rig utilization, dayrates, falling backlogs and weak earnings are the ''Mousetrap'' here. E&P's have the strength of improving cash flows and earnings over a year to year comparison as we go forward - drillers/service companies do not - still a risk vs. reward - no brainer imho. If the EW's say 80 - then the retracement starts from 80 then.... OPEC compliance report looks more & more like a sell into the news - short play event. ...only time will tell. I hope SLB, HAL, SII, CAM - maybe even DO move up another $2-3 here - they will be $4-5 downside chip shots. SII & CAM especially so . Still like RIG SDC PGO FLC as holds - wouldn't want to chase them here to buy - but if you're going to hold through a retracement - these may not be bad choices to hold onto and as insurance to a sector surprise to the upside. FXEN - Apache-bait ? Is Apache done playing Pac Man here ? PS - Was Larry Kudlow great on CNBC this a.m. or what (VBG) ? Hmmmm; short crude futures if they pop $20 on the OPEC news ? - retrace to $16.50 ''fair value'' ?

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