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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (57101)	5/3/1999 4:39:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (1) of 1572931

Pravin, Re: Copper and 0.18 If they can yield 0.18 micron with Copper in Q4 I guess you are right. They may be able to get real close to 800-900 Mhz IF they can yield it. On the other hand if yields suck for 1-2 Quarters, AMD will have dismal financial performance as it needs to cover the overhead of dresden. Supposedly Dresden starts in Q3 and so AMD's breakeven sales will likely ramp up close to 1Bn/qtr by Q4. If they produce 1M+pcs in Q4 at $500 apiece then it's a piece of cake for a profitable Q4. If they can only produce say <200K pcs in Q4 then I suspect Q4 losses may exceed Q1. My best guess is that it will be Q1 2000 that AMD will show a profit and K7 gets seriously cranked up. As you know stuff has 12 week lead-times. And motherboards and chip sets all need to hit the manufcaturing line by mid July to realize income in early Q4. I cannot see folks ramping up volumes of 500K/mo in July when it's not even clear if AMD can deliver anything more than a few 0.25 micron units. Regards, Kash

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