Great post from Raging Bull on S1a filings of DCBB,MALL
NAVR, FROM RAGING BULL POST!!
by: Netradioman 51371 of 51378
I thought you all would like to read this from our friends at Raging Bull. It was a good post. Enjoy!!
Ramblings
I hope everyone isn't too disappointed with our 1 point ‘spike'. Here are a couple of things to help keep things in perspective:
DBCC
S1 – filed 10/13/98 – open--3 3/16 close--4 high--4 3/8
S1a – filed 11/27/98 –previous day close--9 close on 11/27-13
S1a – filed 12/16/98 –previous day close –9 ¼ close on 12/16-8 ½
S1a – filed 12/31/98 –previous day close –14 close on 12/31-18
S1a – filed 1/13/99 – previous day close –35 close on 1/13 – 32
 Topped out at 50 on 1/12, 3 days prior to MKTW trading on 1/15
Now check MALL:
S1 –filed 7/2/98 – previous day close –7 ½ close on 7/2 – 7 3/8
S1a – filed 7/24/98 – previous day close –10 7/8 close on 7/24 – 10 5/8
S1a – filed 8/18/98 –previous day close –12 close on 8/18 – 12
S1a – filed 11/18/98 –prevoious day close –17 7/8 close on 11/18—29 ¾
S1a –filed 11/30/98 –previous day close –56 3/8 close on 11/30 –38
S1a –filed 12/3/98 –previous day close –41 close on 12/3 –35
 Topped out at 63 on 11/27/98, 5 days prior to UBID trading on 12/4
Note that MKTW had 4 S1a's and UBID had 5.
What does the comparison to DBCC and MALL, along with today's NAVR stock action mean? To me it says 1 point or 5 points today doesn't matter a whole lot. The S1a that everyone was expecting was filed, and there was little reaction. Today was also not a net-friendly day.
From my perspective, there doesn't seem to be a rhyme or reason to how backdoors go up or down based on when the S1a's are filed. Personally, I don't care when the S1a's are filed. What is important to me is that NAVR, like DBCC, MALL, and ZD will be worth a lot more just prior to the ipo than it is when an S1a comes out.
Also, just like in DBCC and MALL, ‘We' don't decide when NAVR goes up or down. ‘We' are just along for the ride. It is ‘They' who decide when stocks like NAVR get hit. If I ever figure out who, as Art Cashion on CNBC refers to as ‘THEY' are, I want to be one. Until then, I'll just sit back, ride the wave, and let ‘them' come to me. Whether it is institutions, daytraders, or just big money, ‘they' will come.
NAVR will have its day, or week, or month, but it will be when ‘they' jump all over it. It's just not time yet. And, contrary to what anyone says, no one here knows when the ipo will be. It could be at the end of May and it could be in July. But no one will have to tell us when it is really close, the market will tell us.
Just my 2 cents
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