smart..That long bond is a key indicator, bud.
I have heard this sort of thing for a long time. However, I find the bond futures to be useless. What am I missing?
In fact, from my long term investor days, I always assumed that bonds and stocks typically moved in the same direction. In other words, over the long run, higher bond prices (lower interest rates) tend to lead to higher stock prices and vice versa.
However, after months of trending the long bond futures and the S&P 500 futures, I notice that over a shorter time frame, they do just the opposite. I have found that when the bonds trend higher for 10-15 minutes, the S&P futures are likely to trend lower. Maybe I'm just missing something very logical, but this came as a surprise to me. I'm sure others have noticed this, does anyone have a good explanation? Competition for capital? Selling stock to buy bonds, and vice versa, over the short time frames???
Any ideas?
-Eric |
