Maybe I should know you, but I misunderstood that you were long CSCO. Also, you have given the impression at times of someone who understood it will be very difficult for "the thing" to go away permanently, any time soon, yet become gleeful that it is going down on most big drops. It is doing exactly what we would have guessed 2 months ago: run from 2/15~ panic bottom into yahoo's e, collapse; rally into it's e, collapse. It will now form a bottom and rally like hell into yahoo's earnings.
The "end," if there is one, will be when folks start piling in for that 5-6 week pre-e run, and a big tech or a big net warns well into the burst. It will look like the rally is beginning, money will be drawn in, and folks will wake up with it down 35-50% or more and no recovery in sight until it catches up with it's fundamentals...which could be awhile if you get the picture. It would be a vicious scenario: longs, speculators and mo mo's all smashed.
The other possibility is that it grows at 200% per year for a few years, but the stock doesn't keep up with growth, and then the growth slows toward 100%, giving it a softer landing.
One thing that I see evolving which will really be wasted on the bears: the "scorched earth" way Amzn is going about growth will succed in keeping more main stream retail competitors away for a longer time. If I am the head of Costco, Amzn's report slowed me down from transitioning. I am thinking that amzn may not pull it off, and I am going to wait a little longer before being aggressive about the net. |
