Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony, Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony,

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To: J.Y. Wang who wrote (34353)	5/4/1999 12:37:00 AM
From: ACS_101	Read Replies (1) of 122087

Y2K and foreign countries: Highly recommended reading: year2000.com Click on "The State of Other Nations" By Jon Huntress May 2, 1999 This is session notes taken on a report by Stephanie Moore of Giga International, one of the largest European consulting organizations active in the Y2K remediation effort. JY, my impression is that the active ignorance overseas is overwhelming. It is far too easy (right now) for many to dismiss the problem as a self-serving hysterical fiction of consulting firms out to make a buck. I think your prediction falls short. First, there will be at least two waves of reaction -- one (or more) prior to Jan 1, and one (or more) after. Reaction is likely to start here in the US, simply because markets hate uncertainty. When overseas markets see that we are taking the risk seriously ($$$$), then they'll begin to react. It will be far to late to remediate the problem. Panic will move large sums of money around, but I doubt that overseas investors will prop up US equities that have already tanked. As to the real Y2K problem, let me state that I do not believe in the doomsday scenarios. I think the basic US financial backbone, (other than that the Fed printed a lot of money to stem panic, which is temporarily inflationary) and most of us will have lights, heat and dialtone Jan 1. However, look out for large companies with complex global supply chain structures, particularly those that now practice "just-in-time" manufacturing. (Hint: What's the symbol for GM?) Look what last summer's strike at two stamping plants did to GM's production capability. A lengthy shutdown at a few large manufacturing facilities will definitely take a couple of points off the GNP. How do you spell recession? And companies dependent on overseas supply chain will be exposed to substantial risks. Alan

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