I've been saying for the last several months that ML needed to upgrade Pixar because Pixar has blown past ML's estimate of $315M worldwide box office for ABL. Interestingly, in a report dated April 12th, with Pixar at 33 5/8, ML maintained their "intermediate term neutral" position. Now that Pixar's in the Mid-40's they upgrade? One more example of why you shouldn't wait for analysts to recommend a stock, although ML has a better reputation than other's.
Last summer ML downgraded from "near term accumulate" to "near term neutral", when Pixar was at $62. Pixar went up to 66 within a week, but then we all know what happened next. The moral of the story: Although Merill Lynch may not be able to pinpoint Pixar's exact top and bottom, they have been very good at forecasting near-term direction.
Highlights from the report:
We believe Disney, who is the distributor of Pixar's films, shipped roughly 15 million home video units.
One of the concerns we had (admittedly, we were
overcautious) surrounding the opening of A Bug's Life,
was the crowded release schedule the movie faced, as it
was running against Price of Egypt, Antz and The Rugrats
Movie and. While release dates are always subject to
change, at this point, Toy Story II has the Thanksgiving
window to itself as there are currently no other animated
features scheduled during this period.
A Bug's Life has been a tremendous success -
capturing $360 million in worldwide box office
revenue, surpassing Toy Story and becoming
one of the top five animated releases of all
time.
You may be able to see the whole thing here:
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