ATT WILL WIN, HERE'S WHY.
MCI blew all it's cash on the World Com deal, they might try to be a spoiler, but CASH is king and they might only succeed in making things cost a bit more for T. They also don't have as much reason (or as much
at stake)as T does to go after Media One.
If that occurs.....watch MSFT.....
Q. How do you get someone to make you trust them?
A. Make them a partner.
Watch for MSFT to have some form of partnership with ATT after the dust settles, the price ATT paid to keep MSFT on their side along with promising MSFT the SET TOP BOX OS. Remember with this deal, T will be rolling out more STB's than any one single company.
Time Warner advantage T....they already have a telephony deal, the Roadrunner deal was very close to being fleshed out back in January, parties couldn't agree on price. If things heat up look for Levin and TWX to side with T in exchange for the promise of the price Levin wanted all along for Roadrunner. TWX goes with T.
News Corp. (Rubert Murdock) lines up with T as they have with ATHM for news content (that was the tip) announced last Thursday. Malone of TCI sits on boards of both ATT and News Corp. Hey yeah....News Corp
lines up behind T. Rubert Murdock wants that multi camera interactive Sports Network...only works on Broadband. The connections between the 3 companies are about = to 1 degree of separation
Microsoft behind T, TWX behind T, Newscorp behind T, and MCI really doesn't have the cash or reason to do a deal with Media One right now....With T offering 1/3 cash....CASH IS KING in this deal.
What do you think....is T going to win this deal????
This is not about the book value or intrinsic value of Media One, it is about the strategic value of Media One to ATT's future. The strategic value is HUGE.
Re AOL....Case screwed himself out of the Federal appeal for open access on broadband by entering into the confidentiality agreement with Media One. They have it on the record that AOL did have a shot at gaining broadband presence but didn't or couldn't make the deal. The DUMBEST move Case could have made was coming out in the open that he was talking to Media One...what the hell was he thinking????
Microsoft and AOL were NEVER, I repeat, NEVER together in the Media One dealings. You saw this when AOL dropped out on their own yesterday. In fact MSFT was never really in the Media One deal to come to
Comcasts aid. They were trying to see what they had on T. And what they could get out of T in return for staying out...Set Top OS , IMO.
At this point the only possible negative for ATHM is gone AOL/Media One. Anything else that happens is a plus for ATHM. Broadband DOES seem to be getting it's validation in this deal. |
