RE Public thread vs private site -- I think you're comparing apples to oranges in your posts.
I too value the cameraderie and the good ideas that get posted. However, I cannot know the players, their experience, the quality of the info or insight they have, or their agendas. Nobody's accountable. Don't get me wrong -- there's useful info here, and I've enjoyed many of your posts in particular.
But in my opinion, or more accurately I should say in my experience, Anthony is not just another voice on the thread. Two major points stand out:
1) He has publicly disclosed his professional background including his substantial experience with the inside mechanisms of marketmaking as a career
2) He has gone to the unprecedented step of posting a set of trades real-time for all to evaluate his efficacy over time
For whatever reason, he now indicates that public posting of his trades is reducing their effectiveness. Given the accuracy of his record, his scrupulous concern for integrity in stating matters of fact, and his unprecedented record of voluntary accountability, I'd be inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt on this until/unless proven otherwise.
He also wants to charge for his advice. Nothing wrong with that either -- I dare say there are folks charging more, lots more, for advice that is worth much much less....
It comes down to a matter of hit-rate, and the impact of improving my personal success rate on overall return. Lets say (theoretically) that I can glean enough info off this thread to make good calls 60% of the time. That means on every 100 trades, I'm up a net 20 (60 - 40)(assuming dollar averaged results.) If I can get that hit-rate up to 85%, I'm now up a net 70 (85 - 15). Note the 350% improvement in results!
If Anthony can demonstrate a hit rate of 85% in public (maybe even higher in private) the case to pay for the service is compelling, to the extent that investment return rate is a criterion.
Some people think you shouldn't charge for sharing information. I say you get what you pay for -- but only if you choose carefully.
On the other hand, its obvious Tony feels constrained from validating others' suggestions (prior to posting/taking a position), suggesting "targets" or timeframes for trades, and lots of other info he obviously has at hand because he's concerned its being misused. So he has withheld those money-losing "strokes".
Unless someone posts their trade entry and exit points real-time, "taking credit" for a "good" trade is just empty words. 100's of people "take credit" for 1000's of "trades" on Yahoo every day. Its a fools' parade.
Given the above, I think the "taking your toys and leaving the sandbox" dig at Anthony is unfair, a blind swipe.
Alan |
