Good long shot now, with floor underneath it with the foundry holdings and foundry business recovering. Long term, need to see how their networking stuff pan out. If networking pans out, they'll probably get acquired. If I were the Reddy bros, I'll prefer to spend my time enjoying my money.
The USC is worth something. Don't know if the Charter stake is worth anythingn anymore. That depends on whether the fab can go below 0.3um. If not, the money's gone. But between Broadcom and USC, not that much risk. I think ~$3 ALSC is fairly valued until something happens, like USC going public.
I don't like DRAMs. I think Hyundai is going to ramp up LG big with sub-0.25um and if that happens, just about can count on another 2 years of low DRAM prices.
I like a whole bunch of other big stocks and think they can easily double from here within the next 18 months - INTC, LSI, TXN, ADI, XLNX, ALTR, ADI, STM etc. etc. The upturn has barely started. IP guys will lead, DRAMs might never get there. Sales growth for IP guys have already started since Q4 '98. Earnings growth should be evident by end of Q2 or Q3. At that time, I expect the semis to take another move up based on earnings. By Q1 '00, the IP guys should be 'minting money'. Would sell probably around X'mas '00 or right after.
So if I were to bet big, I won't bet on ALSC but would rather take on one of those 'safer' bets. I am parking my behind on the LSI thread nowadays.
patrick
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