Thread,
Like many of you I am intrigued about the potential for WDM but am horrified at the unsustainable market cap awarded to the current sole pure-play in the industry. In the long-run of course, reality will intervene, but in the short run, like most of you, I am loath to attempt to sell short (assuming the shares can even be borrowed).
Ciena's overvaluation notwithstanding, I am surprised that more of it's good fortune has not rubbed off onto its better-healed competitors and potential competitors, e.g. NT, LU, ALA, Pirelli. I attribute this mostly to the fact that this is such a new industry and there are few, if any, analysts that really cover it. Naturally, I also recognize that WDM is but a very small piece of the pie of these other companies. (If I were CEO of one of them, I would sure be inclined to spin off my WDM products division ASAP!).
In any case, I am hoping that perhaps we can open this thread up a bit to discuss the WDM industry a bit more in light of the somewhat overinflated valuations currently given to CIEN.
Anyone here have positions already in NT, LU, ALA, or Pirelli or thoughts about establishing them? I'd like to discuss target prices for accumulation and prospects. Also I like threads that are industry rather than purely single-pony based because they tend to take a more objective view and focus better on the competitive landscape which is so important in tech stocks.
Any and all thoughts welcome. I don't mean to divert the thread from it's stated topic of interest, so if I'm out-of-bounds, just say so and I'll be happy to start my own thread.
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