I think we will see the market direction being determined by what happens today, if we move stay above 1342 on SPm and DOT or NDX COMP climbs back above 638 2115 2520 resistance we may see that yesterday break was a false break, if we make new lows on DOT and break 600 we have another 50 days test in offing, I would like to think that this market has already seen a 20% move up in DOW, in a quarter to have this performance is satisfactory enough to expect it on yearly basis is bit steep we have a mature market and although we may see 1430 objective in tact some consolidation at these higher levels is a must, I am thinking about a move to 1292 area a retest of support and rather ideally 1230, that would mean a sell off in NDX below 1980 and DOT testing 450, this may happen in next few weeks or may take a visit to 1430 and market draws back but within this year a test of supports and lower leves is a must for this market.
I highlighted bonds in my trading strategy.. on bonds I wrote day before yesterday when we saw that rally to 1360 area, this rally was GS based and once the story was out we drifted lower as bonds had crossed my 5.69 area highlighted on 3rd May, the pits were shorting 1360 from the opening with a stop loss at 1364 they covered at 1350 that resulted in a spike to 1355 but again as 1355 was not able to hold we dropped to 1339 at the close. TYX is important and in present environment that cannot be ignored, we have strong economy, the deflation issue is dead, oil prices are inching back up as result of that the Economist article, fear behind it and Oil prices will son revert the downward course as more supplies hit the market, otehr fears are rising wage pressure although nit to be seen in the numbers or ECI still fear about rising inflation is once again in air, in such conditions we will see buy at dips and sell at tops markets this is exactly what Iam doing, buying at dips or at supports and selling the tops... this market is a range driven market and traders paradise, we need to look at opportunities as major supports are taken out or major resitance is breacehd, if BKX break 902 I will not be surprised to see that DOW may head lowe and otehr cyclicals with it and internets speculation may once again beocme the folklore story of every thread, however the support of 600 is good and one expects that we may close above 625 today if we break this 625 on two closing basis we may see much steeper correction to 2300 area in comp..
Monday, May 3 1999 11:45AM ET
Reply # of 26026 << This is possibly going to be a market like 900 and 990 band. I will think we will see
some back and forth movement between 1372 and 1230.. I would in short term like to
see 1355 to be taken out and we close above it on DOT 675 should be softened, 2576
with 1355 can be a good signal for a run to 1368 area, on down side a break of 1339
on SPm will trigger my defensive response, I will like to short 760' on DOT and
purchase 1320's if we stay below that 1339 for 30-45 minutes, I will not hesitate to
cover also at 1323 area or 625 on DOT..
I will keep a close eye on BKX a break of 907 will indicate some selling in key finacials
if we break thru 902 we may not see that recovery from 1322 support. Bond Yields
TYX are now very important and increase beyond 5.69 will impact the market hard, so
if we see it rising above that 5.69 reduce your trading positions, this level of yield is
pretty steep for market at 1345, we need lowering of yields. >> |
