There is one observation you should be anxious over: I cannot find a market, whether for tulips, corn or equities, that when led to an emotional-top, did not at least duplicate the converse.
Many make the mistake believing, that because we have come so far, it is unthinkable that a decline of unspeakable severity as that which occurred in history would ever be possible. But, if history continues in like fashion as it has to this time, then the severity of decline in our market, as measured by the DJIA, will be at least twice that which occurred in '29. I am not suggesting the percentage of decline will be twice, or the length, twice, but that it will most likely, in its aggregate, be demonstrated to be about twice as severe.
I make that observation because, by all measures of value, equities are at least twice as dear today then in '29. I know it sounds absurd, but in no less measure than telling somebody in October '82 the DJIA would reach 11,000 in 1999. I do know, without question, the bear-market period will be unlike any that ever preceded.
Good luck with your investments.
Tewrrence |
