An analysis of Novadigm stock....
I came to know about novadigm recently. I am a professional in silicon valley working in internet arena for some time. As usual, I am doing
my research into the stock, before I put money into it....I looked into various research reports, analysed the company products, looked at the customer list, saw the strength of competitors and their products and finally looked at the stock performance and earnings over the past 2 years. Here are my findings so far....
1. The company has technology & products that competitors don't have and products that are very much in demand in by IT departments. Having been in the software industry for nearly 10 years, I think this is the biggest strength of Novadigm. There is no doubt they are in a growth sector within the software industry.
2. There is only a few companies that are serious competitors, but they have the "big name" and marketing muscle behind them. This includes IBM, CA and Marimba. But none of them have an established product that has been deployed in the field for a long period, like Novadigm has. In fact, the technology that IBM and CA has is age old and does not compare to the strength of Novadigm. But, neverthless, Novadigm will have a tough time battling the marketing/sales muscles of these Big-names.
3. The stock has been beaten up in the past pretty bad and hence, analysts won't touch it for some time. On the other hand, Novadigm is showing consistent sequential growth in recent quarters. This is going to attract some analysts and institutions in near future. Also "Marimba", one of the competitors, is a new wall street darling IPO. This will throw some attention at Novadigm.
MY CONCLUSION:
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This stock reminds me so much of some of the other software stocks that I bought before they were discovered by analysts (like inktomi and Go2Net). I think this is the time for jumping in, before big instutional money takes notice of this stock. But, I beleive this won't be a short term play like the other internet stocks. This has good long term potential and my conclusion would be a "strong buy" at this point and wait atleast a year to see what happens. Unless management screws up big time, this is a good investment. I think management is playing it good, keeping a low profile and focusing on sales, customers and not so much on "empty press-releases" to boost up the stock for the short term.
Any comments ? |
