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Technology Stocks : Identix (IDNX)
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To: brad greene who wrote (267)3/5/1997 11:11:00 PM
From: Hockeyfan   of 26039
 
Brad, you are correct.

I believe the First Call estimates for 1998 only represent Jeff Kessler's estimate of 40 cents. Mr. Kessler states specifically in his analyst notes on the real First Call system, not the AOL version, that his earnings estimates do not include any "enterprise software agreements" such as Oracle agreement or the Japan contract or the California AFIS contract if IDX should be fortunate enough to get the them. Kessler's estimates represent a general rise in product demand from law enforcement and time & attendance. According to Dominick & Dominick's estimate in late 1995, a 1% penetration of Oracle's customer base would mean $100 million in revenues to IDX. At a 50% gross margin, 35% tax rate and 25 million shares, this equates to approximately $1.00 a share or more. I am not sure that all the sales will take place in one year. Kessler's estimate was made in December 1996.

To show that I am not completely biased, Michael Rindos of H.J. Meyers & Co. predicts in his 10/31/96 report that IDX will earn 8 cents in FYE 1997 and 20 cents in FYE 1998. It appears that his estimates were adversely affected by his preoccupation with DBII lawsuit and the nutcase's nuisance lawsuit, the former of which was subsequently thrown out of court and the latter of which will never be pursued.
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