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Technology Stocks : Loral Space & Communications

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To: Jeff Vayda who wrote (6045)5/6/1999 11:56:00 AM
From: Rocket Scientist  Read Replies (1) of 10852
 
Jeff, if you really mean "bottom line" profits, you've got at least another 18 months to wait, according to mgmt. The bottom line earnings will worsen for the next few quarters, in all likelihood, even as EBITDA grows substantially in the FSS sector, because G* will be a huge loss item in its first several quarters under even the most optimistic scenario. And each time a new FSS bird is put up, depreciation starts at full bore, while revenue tends to ramp up over time, so I expect Orion 2, if not T7 will actually contribute a loss for the first 1-2 quarters after launch. Also, I believe the company has been capitalizing Orion interest costs, which will have to be expensed once that satellite goes into operation.

The Loral "story" remains one of EBITDA for a while; but that story looks better than ever to me now, based on the bookings and sat utilization estimates in the latest report and conf call. Hang in there.

Regards,

RS

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