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I am long AOL, but AOL either needs to make an announcement of the "percieved" cable broadband strategy, or the cost of xDSL must come down substantially to match cable. Does anyone know why DSL is so expensive. AT&T would love to have AOL, but the snag has continued to be that they do not want to give AOL the access like they have with the telcos. (ie. lease the lines and offer the consumer a bundled package - giving AOL the first page and entrance to the net.) this is ultimately important in e-commerce revenues where the big money is. As I go thru all of this in my mind I believe that AT&T/ATHM is in pretty good shape. However, I really can't see the FCC and the Justice Department as well as congress, letting 1 company have so much control over the economy (e-commerce). The way it is currently with the telcos, there is plenty competition - AOL MSPG ELNK GEEK etc. The problem with us longs as investors is that we would like something to occur now! But, I believe AOL knows that they have some time and therefore, will sort of wait a little to see what the government will do, as well as, negotiate with AT&T. I am not sure I completely understand ATHM. But I think the real solution as I see it would be for ATHM to to break into 2 companies, 1 that would control the infrastructure backbone, and the other would be content ie XCIT. Then lease off the lines the same as the telcos do. And anyone including AOL or any other isp could "get in". They could charge entry fees to the companies so as to more quickly develop cable access to more people quicker. Just thoughts. |
