Ultimately, it may be measured in the breadth of despair and dislocation to individual livelihoods. Specifically, the debacle in '29 began with a bull- move in 1921, and saw its lowest point in 1932. A span of 10-years, or so. Recovery into a subsequent bull-market occurred, without question, at the end of 1949. From a DJIA of 63, or so, to 380, and down to 41 at its nadir, before holding steady between 160-200 in the years '46-'49. All of this experience predicated on a stock-market boom that saw a six- fold advance in 8- years. Quite a bit of disruption in comparison to the market move.
Now, contrast that to today's experience. A stock-market boom launched in 1982 resulting in a 15-fold increase in market- price. An event that has required sixteen- years to accomplish, but also resulting in market valuation that has easily exceeded 1929 measures by a factor of 2, or more ,regardless of the instrument of measure used. From market-value vs. GDP, to market book- value, to price-dividend ratio, to, even, price-earnings ratio, all are are much higher than history had ever before allowed. It will not surprise me to encounter a wrenching economic dislocation proportionate to the advance.
It may be measured in double the years to reach the equivalent of '49 stability; it may require many more market-panics to reach its nadir; it may result in economic privation longer in duration, or greater in scope; it may result in the DJIA returning to levels not seen in thirty years. It is of no consequence to speculate how, for it cannot be known. But, despite that, the emotional move in the market, as measured by the things we use to gauge the market's value, is twice that known in '29.
Take care,
Terrence
P.S. I make no claim to know anything, but hope to use history to guide me in the general direction. Everything else said is speculation-the future will furnish the details.
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