Good question, RS. The answer is "it can't". Loral has back-up on Mabuhay, apparently had planned for a possible Orion snafu, and it also appears that they have access to some Intelsat transponders that Skynet can market. So, how the heck it reduces any of Loral's value going forward two years (with a new sat to replace the Orion in 18 months, and with insurance overcompensating the cost of the GEOsat and the launch) beats me.
Excellent analysis on your part RS.
I am more interested about the possible attempt either by NASA on May 20th Shuttle recovering this Orion, or Hughes (in El Segundo I am told) on its own getting the Orion back. Apparently NASA can place this GEOsat in the Shuttle bay, and move it to where it should be-- if they decide to do it. Looks like NASA has done this for military satellites in the past, as I am told. Hope that is public information (or maybe I will be accused of transferring technology to the readers on this board).
The Bear Stearns target for LOR has to be excluding Globalstar on a forward basis. These analyst target prices mean nothing, I can vouch for that. May as well as handicap the trifecta at Santa Anita racetrack. How does Bear Stearns get $24, Pierre Ciao of Morgan Stanley $27-29 (which he considers conservative) and Lehman plus $30?
You know, I hope they do get the Orion back. These analysts, whom I have suggested in the past you have to take with a boatload of salt, will then have to redo their numbers again. Of course, fine-lining it, they will have to take one month or (will it be 46 days, or 49, or 57) off the transponder stream in the new "model". So much noise, really.
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