Anybody looked at the chart lately? Did we just break out?
I know all of the discussions about fundamentals and management style are very important, but it seems we may be looking good technically here. Since late 1997 we've been below the 200 day moving average except for a few short stretches this year. We broke through around January 7 for about 5 days, then around January 25 for about a day, then a pretty good stretch between March 25 and April 8, and again April 13-20.
I see some differences this time.
1. First, the 200 DMA is lower now, hence it should be easier to hold above it. This sounds weak; but if it holds, the street will start to believe a sustainable uptrend has begun.
2. The shorter trend lines are along for the ride this time. This is the first time the stock has broken through when the 50 DMA wasn't still below the 200 DMA.
3. I see a pick up in volume here, although it isn't Earth shattering. Earlier this year when we broke through, there didn't seem to be as much volume to support it. Six of the last seven trading sessions constitute the heaviest volume this year with few exceptioins. The weakest of those six trading sessions was today when we traded 245k. I count four days this year, before this latest move, that had heavier volume. Those were 289k on Jan 13, 572k on Jan 20, 254k on Feb 10, and 270k on Feb 18.
What do the rest of you think? Any authorities in TA out there have an opinion? How bout some help.
Thanks.
Stu B |
