The near religious devotion of NN supporters is almost amazing. In all honesty, a lot of the comments on this thread seem to have the air of people who are more interested in finally being proven right than making intelligent investments.
Since I've played back and forth many times with NN, won some and lost some I'm interested in hearing some actual investment theories rather than just alot of product stuff. Given the size of revenues, profitability, growth in some sectors or their business and stagnation/decline in others, I'd be interested to know what those long on NN believe a good valuation of the company is? If you look at the recent buyouts of FORE and XYLN one could conclude that NN's non TDM business is worth something like 6x revenue and their TDM business 1 or 2x revenue. If that's the case, then the current market cap of $5B(US) isn't real far off from what a buyout price would be like.
At any rate, I'd appreciate hearing what the longs on the board think the price could be in one year, two years, etc., and what they base that on. The religous devotion to NN may be admirable, but, the real question is what's the potential return and what's the risk. Another question that any investor needs to ask themselves is what are the lost opportunities. Last year I was fortunate and moved out of NN and into XYLN and YURI. I moved out of NN mostly out of sheer frustration and into XYLN/YURI because I already owned some and was convinced that they were prime acquisition candidates. Luckily, that worked out well(I'm not trying to brag here, because I've had plenty that haven't). Looking back, if I had hung in with NN(which I sold at $28) I'd have missed out on capitalizing on the other events.
So I'd appreciate enlightenment on how you value NN on a forward basis. |
