Board; here's a long article on Net Appliances; doesn't mention
any company directly, just the industry growth....
What Internet Stock Bubble?
As Net appliances appear and services multiply, analysts predict huge industry growth.
by Reuters
April 28, 1999, 3:03 a.m. PT
San Francisco -- Who says Internet hysteria has gotten out of hand?
Not the technology leaders and analysts gathering for the industry's biggest annual conference here. They are giving some of the rosiest forecasts yet for the Internet sector, saying that far from being concerned about inflated stock prices or consolidation, they have new reason to expect stock prices to keep climbing and the number of Internet companies to multiply.
"There will be explosive, viral growth," Hambrecht & Quist Internet analyst Daniel Rimer predicted during a panel discussion Monday at the start of the four-day technology conference his company is hosting. "There will be an incredible wave of new companies that are just emerging. We're moving into a much more connected world."
The Hambrecht & Quist conference is showcasing a record 315 high-tech companies to some 3200 institutional investors and analysts in attendance.
Many of the Internet companies making presentations are drawing standing-room-only crowds, prompting Yahoo Chair Tim Koogle to remark on Monday that it felt more like a rock concert than a business forum.
But after a year when the prices of several Internet stocks rose tenfold and millions of people migrated online, how could this level of growth be sustained, let alone accelerated?
Enter the Net Appliances
The answer, say some of the analysts who follow the sector, is Internet appliances.
While most people still access the Internet from their PCs, a host of gadgets and appliances ranging from cell phones to pagers are being connected to the Internet, which Rimer said is fueling a new wave of growth for the industry.
These "smart appliances" have been the talk of technology fans and visionaries since the earliest days of the Internet. Now they are becoming a consumer reality.
Paul Noglows, another Hambrecht and Quist Internet analyst, said consumers can expect within the next year to see devices like cell phones that connect to yellow-page directories, pagers that send personalized news flashes on stocks, and handheld organizers that enable you to buy and sell stocks without going near a PC.
For Internet companies, this means new business challenges that could open lucrative new markets. Companies that provide content to Internet services and search engines will have the opportunity to package more specialized content for different appliances.
Other opportunities for software and hardware makers will lie in finding new ways to deliver content to small devices with limited memory, display space, processing power, and battery life.
It's Not Just the Web Anymore
"We really do believe the trend is all about the Internet permeating more than the World Wide Web," said Rimer. He projected that by 2000, the use of smart devices would surpass PC penetration. By 2002, he predicts, some 55.7 million devices will be shipped, almost 10 times last year's 5.9 million.
"Content providers know that this is the opportunity going forward," added Noglows. "If you go to AOL or Yahoo Finance six or eight times a day to check your stock prices, wouldn't it make more sense to pay those guys a buck or two a month to get that same information downloaded to your pager?"
Privacy Issues Still Loom
There are several factors, like privacy concerns, that could threaten to delay that progress. But few of the ebullient investors at the conference seemed worried, even after Elliot Maxwell, the Commerce Department's Internet guru, laid out a long list of issues from privacy to tax policy and access to bandwidth that he said threatened to slow the runaway growth.
"Now there's an enormous sense of possibility of the future, but unless we have an environment where people feel safe and secure, these growth rates aren't going to take place,'' Maxwell, special advisor to the Secretary of Commerce for the Digital Economy, told the conference.
Still, even Maxwell expressed a desire to avoid restrictive regulations that could put an end to the robust economy the Internet has helped fuel. "No one wants to do anything but encourage [e-commerce]," he said.
Leadership Not Guaranteed
If there were one admonition in the midst of all the buoyancy, it was that the industry was evolving so fast that not even today's leaders would be guaranteed a role in tomorrow's Internet landscape.
"Perhaps the true industry transformation hasn't occurred yet," said Genni Combes, a Hambrecht & Quist Internet analyst who follows online retailers.
"Amazon.com has created tremendous incremental demand for books. But maybe authors will eventually want to reach their readers directly."
Copyright © 1999 Reuters Limited
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