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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?
MSFT 478.53-1.0%Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (22324)5/7/1999 12:07:00 PM
From: t2  Read Replies (2) of 74651
 
I sold so much MSFT that it is not a big holding for me anymore. Now I feel guilty---I made a lot of cash on short term options trading on this stock in the last year and a half. Everybody says don't fall in love with a stock but for me this is the exception. I think it makes up under 10% of my portfolio at this point----I am used to having at the very least 40% in Microsoft (combined effect of stock and options).

The company is positioning itself very well for the future. I am looking to start buying some more shares but the early selloff even with a good employment report tells me that there could still be a lot of selling pressures. I am waiting to see if I can pick up the shares at about 76 in the next couple of weeks. If it does not drop, I will have to buy it at higher prices---however I don't see it higher than the low 80s in the near future---the downside may be about 75 or so. When we hit June or the start of the trial, the stock should start moving up very quickly. I want to be heavily invested in MSFT by that time.

The only dark cloud hanging over MSFT is the trial. IMHO, it is by far the biggest reason investors are selling. IF msft settles, I bet it would shoot up very fast to an all time high. Considering the investments they are currently making for the future, I think they may be willing to concede to the goverment on many points just to get it over with. The only problem with this approach is that the DOJ/States will go after them anytime they feel like it since MSFT will put itself in a position of being an easy target. In that scenario, it is in their best interest to make it really difficult for the government through the appeals process. Another case on another product, such as Office, may be too costly for the DOJ to pursue if MSFT can get them to waste a lot of their budget on the current case and the appeals. In conclusion, when you weigh a settlement vs. going through the courts all the way, my guess would be go through the court system is their strategy unless the DOJ/States get reasonable (from MSFT's viewpoint) in their demands.

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