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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Jeffrey D who wrote (5007)5/7/1999 12:10:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (2) of 15132
 
** AMAT Riddle ** Jeffrey: My goodness, you are the only one who asked. Sometimes I think I am writing to myself here on this thread. This is no mind game riddle. I wrote it as a riddle so people would think about the answer becasue the answer may make you a ton of money if you invest in this sector. I wanted the answer to the riddle to stick in your mind over and above all the noise you hear on these threads and especially the AMAT thread where mindless bear noise has returned. I don't mind good bear arguments but the stuff they are posting over there is pretty weak.

Now is the time to go long AMAT and this sector. But for the overall market conditions, I have never been more bullish on this sector as I am today. Anybody who is short is going to get their head handed to them over the next few months. If you snooze on this stocks, you will lose.

There have been noticeable upcycles in 1993, 1995 and 1997 (every two years) in this sector and for AMAT. Hey, what do you know --- this is 1999? Now look at the charts for every one of those cycles and you will see that May through August have been great months without exception. Preceding these runs there have been sector corrections just like the one we are looking at now and they all end right about now. Loading up from May and selling in early August is the best strategy except for a trade after the release of May earnings. Holding after August is more problematic in the absence of a multi-year chip cycle. History may not guarantee success but it may increase your odds.
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