George Gilder - Forbes ASAP Message Board

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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP

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To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (1470)	5/7/1999 12:58:00 PM
From: George Gilder	Read Replies (1) of 5853

The differences among the various 3G schemes are mostly cosmetic. All depend on Qualcomm intellectual property and unformulated experience (what Michael Polanyi calls tacit knowledge) about how to make CDMA systems work. In telecom, there are constant outbreaks of standards politics, full of claims and maneuvers, alliances and hustles. If I had paid any attention to these distractions, I would have given up on Qualcomm five years ago. But the next generation of wireless does not represent what Clayton Christensen calls a condition of technology "overshoot," where modular solutions are available to all and politics prevails. It represents technology "undershoot," which means that it is going to be exacting to build and deploy and the winners will be the companies with the relevant knowledge and skills and the ability to integrate them. I suspect that Qualcomm and the Koreans have the edge, even in the face of comments to the contrary from the European forces who long relied on their confidence that CDMA violated the laws of physics. The Ericsson 3G proposal revealed a flawed command of CDMA through TDMA spectacles.

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