<<cmg, on this thread somebody compared its valuation to FORE before the takeover and thinks about $30.-40 takeover target.. Hmm..>>
Laugh though you might, but IMO $30-$40 is WAY TOO LOW for a takeover target - IF their products are as good as they seem to be and IF MRVC executes to bring the carrier sales in. The carrier/METRO DWDM and next generation terabit router markets are HUGE - literally $BILLIONS in potential revenues for companies with cutting edge next generation networking solutions.
That is the level I think the stock can get to by itself in the next 18 months - by which time, if I am right the market perception of MRVC will just then be reaching the halfway point in changing over from extreme pessimism to extreme optimism.
If MRVC executes, they will become a significant player in the Metro DWDM market, in the Carrier/CLEC/ISP market, in China and other 3rd world countries, and in PROGRESSIVE domestic enterprises, that want to move to next generation LAN technology.
In the 3rd world countries, Wireless Fiber driver could be BIG because they don't have the massive investments in fiber already in place, criss crossing their countries. The articles you read tend to be heavily domestic, but it's a big world out there - and much less developed than the U.S.
My guess - and this is IF MRVC executes as I have laid out above - is that we move to $40, split, move back up - and THEN get bought out in 2001 or so. This factors in not only earnings growth, but also a higher market valuatation in terms of P/S and P/E ratios, that would bring us closer to those of other networkers over time. |
