All T has to do is ensure that programming is fair - this is the main issue. May have to do something with Liberty Media.
How can this otherwise be a problem? Cable already is a monopoly so combining legal monopolies is not a problem (30% rule is not a rule yet). There is no competition for residential phone service without T's cable investments and if FCC and Congress really want competition (which is a stated objective of the 1996 Act), this is by far the quickest path. Finally, if you read the comments and decision with the TCI merger you would know that an objection to this merger on the basis of broadband internet access concentration or open cable access won't fly because 1) open cable access is a separate issue (exists without this merger), and 2) there is nationwide competition with DSL. The FCC recently issued its 3 year report on broadband and they concluded that there was no need to do anything to spur deployment and that it was coming along on a reasonable basis. They know, however, that the RBOCs really do not want to deploy DSL because it depletes their highly profitable and grossly overpriced T1 service. The only way to get them moving is to permit cable to deploy without obstruction. These 2 reasons (get broadband out there and local phone competition) are the real reasons TCI was approved. I believe these reasons are as much in place now as they were a few months ago.
Of course, the politians could get into the mix and claim to protect consumers from a "potential" problem but I'll bet the ones that do have their pockets lined with Bell dollars. You see what the Bells want is to get into long distance without giving up local monopoly which is contrary to 1996 law. T's moves bring them closer to long distance but they will fight it anyway. They know that if they can get into long distance before T has a fighting chance in local, they will win big. It is imperitive to remember that he who controls the local loop will get most of the long distance customers.
We're probably not going to have more than 2 competitors in the residential local loop for some time - afterall there can only be 3 types = cable, wire, and wireless. It seems to me that even if we only have 2, it's certainly better than 1 and seeing as how the RBOCs will be able to offer local, long distance, wireless and broadband internet, the only meaningful competition may be T in any event and the only meaningful advantage they have is cable. Perhaps Armstrong is signaling with the sale of 2M cable customers to Comcast that cable services do not interest him that much. |
