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George--Forget EW--Just look at the chart with various indicators lined up underneath. They are saying 'negative divergence-trouble ahead'. It is like going out towards the top of a hill with the crowd screaming (since the crowd now knows all the good news, with Barrons simply repeating a version thereof). From a trading standpoint only, I for one would feel much 'safer' with those divergences either eliminated or first causing a 'material' drop in share price. As I see it, only then can the next major leg get underway...As to what may cause it, maybe a bombing halt (jet fuel), maybe simply exhaustion, maybe a drop in crude into the 16's....As Barry Rosen's recent market letter suggested-cycles call for a peak in crude 'in May', a bottom by August (above 15) and then a surge into the high 20's....to each his own I suppose. Buy and Holds will do fine simply ignoring the next little while. My comments are only geared towards the s.t traders, who might want to avoid such dips as PDE dropping from 12.25 to 9.31 last week. As I see it, the main sled dogs like SLB etc are setting up for a drop, perhaps beginning after 1 more little blip up near 66 in the'E' wave of the abcde triangle SLB seems to be forming, just like the OSX itself....I'm not saying a material drop MUST happen, just that one is, shall we say, 'Probable' |
