Peter, re: ". I think that one of the major drivers of the healthy economy that the US has recently been blessed is the "peace dividend". The military industrial complex is ultimately a drag on the economy."
This has always been a hot topic in the Economics Departments scattered throughout Academia, with the usual cast of characters lining up to support their favorite political prejudice. Thus, the "hawks" are always running amok with the beneficial pump priming effect to the economy when the printing presses get stuck in the "on" position as aircraft carriers, stealth bombers, and whatnot start spitting out the other end.
Meanwhile, the "doves" find themselves uncharacteristically ranting about the dire effects of Big Government as the flood of newly minted greenbacks starts to rev up the inflation engine. [the worst part of this, as any red-blooded investor knows, is that the "I" word gives Alan G. a huge case of the heebie-jeebies which is invariably good for a quick 500 point hit on the DJ]
Although facts are incredibly dangerous grenades to toss into a full fledged political p*ssing contest, we find ourselves in a position to test the "Defense Spending--Heaven or Hell?" thesis as a result of all the military base closures spread across the amber waves of American grain over the past few years.
Be damned if the "peace dividend" kids didn't wind up with the last laugh. Despite dire predictions of economic Armageddon as the biggest payroll in town after town took a powder, a funny thing happened on the way to Depression. Those nutty entrepreneurial guys and gals, who spend money as if its theirs, stepped up to the plate and started hitting it out of the park, or the base, as the case may be. With very few exceptions (and admittedly after a painful year or two adjustment period), the 'new' private economies had MORE than replaced prior employment levels, with growth rates on the down right robust side.
In Northern California, the small/medium town of Alameda was all but written off when the Navy packed their duffel bags. Kinda tough to find something to do with all those airplane hangars and nuclear ship repair yards. Well, Hollywood came to the rescue as they decided that those hangars made for ideal sound/movie stages, and now the joint is swarming with electronic artisans instead of swabbies. Private yacht harbors have turned a lustful eye on the marina, and, well you get the drift. [I am a little honked off that my proposal for a new state of the art surfboard manufacturing facility was given short shrift, but 'none is so blind as he who . . ."]
All of this is to say that if the SS Qualcomm is looking for a parking space, Alameda's got it covered. The little real estate outfit I hang out with actually looks for investments in little bergs that have been whupped with the DoD ugly stick: we ain't been wrong yet (with apologies for mixing reality and theory). Best, SM |
