I find it hard to believe that the investigators are not measuring EDSS (disability scores). As I recall, the investigators looked for disability scores in the phase II trials, but were unable to find any. Perhaps the investigators don't expect to see any such change, but they would be foolish not to be looking for it.
Anyway, I think that the issue is not of great importance, because it is such a natural compliment for existing therapy (interferon)--see my ealier post.
I think that the product will work, perhaps only arginally, showing an improvement in annual exacerbation rate. Nevertheless, I expect that this will become standard of care treatment for MS. And I expect that the results, if positive, will be national news.
What I don't know how to do is to anticipate the price of the stock given that I think it will become standard treatment for MS.
The price of the stock has been markedly lower recently, and that scares me. If this trial doesn't turn up a statistically significant positive result--last one out is a rotten egg.
I am sticking to my guns though. The science here is good, and with such a large trial, I expect the results to be significant.
Somebody help me to anticipate the price of the stock in the event of a positive result! |
