PB: re: "Workstation / Server Sales Forecasting"
Your stated: "I have a contention that there seems to be more than enough focus on desktop sales trends over time, but neither the press or the analysts have a clue about what's going on with Servers and Workstations. This makes trying to get a handle on Intel's near term prospects somewhat difficult without this type of data, IMHO.
Question: Why do the analysts seem so clueless with this very important market?"
I think you're correct in your observation. If so, the logical reason is that the microprocessor business has had a long and highly visible connection to PCs, whereas the movement up into the workstation and server markets is a relatively new phenomenon.
Intel management has made pointed references to success in these high-end markets in the last few analyst meetings, with slides that show INTC growth contrasted to non-IA growth. But if the analysts that cover INTC are not pure semiconductor analysts, they are MPU/PC hybrids (e.g., Dan Niles at BBRS or Andy Neff at Bear, Stearns) that have covered INTC, CPQ, DELL, SEG and WDC. I believe some (such as Andy) have migrated into coverage of IBM and SUNW, but in many firms, that remains the area for a dedicated mainframe/minicomputer analyst.
My own contention is that INTC's success in migrating up the food chain has offered substantial protection to the profit stream even as revenue growth has proved more erratic over the past several quarters. If AMD is able to introduce a credible entrant into the high end, that protection is likely to prove less robust and both revenues and profits are likely to grow at rates that would be disappointing to most investors. In any event, I'd be nervous if I were Sun (but then, I'm a pure semiconductor analyst that monitors all of the box guys from a distance - after all, Silicon Rules).
I'd love to discuss this at length, but I'm being summoned to help my wife do the only thing more difficult than analyze technology investments: bathe a one-year-old German shepherd back from a walk through wet springtime woods. - Tad LaFountain |
