Pruguy,
"presently cable is available to about 10% of the country and has received a penetration rate of %2"
You may want to re-check your figures. I still don't know why there is an AOL vs ATHM debate going on (since one deals with content and advertising and the other deals with bandwidth), but below are a few recent stats on cable TV penetration:
"Industry analysts estimate that 56% of all cable homes are passed by activated two-way plant (increasing to 86% by year-end 1999), allowing for the deployment of interactive on-line services."
--Paul Kagan Associates, Inc., Cable TV Technology, Sept. 30, 1998, p. 1.
Basic Cable Subscribers: 67,011,180
Cable Penetration Rate: 67.4%
Homes Passed as a Percent of US Television Households: 96.56%
--Nielsen Media Research (1998)
"In 1998, cable companies brought commercial cable Internet services into over 100 markets throughout the U.S. Today, 19.5 million homes are passed by cable systems that are offering high-speed residential cable Internet services, growing to 39 million homes by 2000, and by 2005 to more than 67 million homes."
--Paul Kagan Associates, Inc., Cable TV Technology, Aug. 26, 1998, p. 3
I don't think anyone is looking at ATHM being a threat to AOL. Look for partnerships between the two. I am pretty confident that within a year you will see ATHM partnering with AOL to offer access to AOL services to those customers who desire it. Such a deal can easily become a win-win for both companies. AOL knows this. They have been spending alot of money at the last several National Cable TV Association conferences to put themselves in such a position.
Also, cable has no dreams of being the only supplier of broadband services. There will be several winners (DSL, cable and wireless) and consumers will spend enough money to make everyone happy. In fact, the @Work network (business arm of ATHM) sells hybrid solutions of DSL and cable to customers.
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