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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?
MSFT 459.38-2.4%Jan 14 3:59 PM EST

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To: RTev who wrote (22402)5/9/1999 7:21:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake  Read Replies (5) of 74651
 
MSFT, are you listening? Free blueprint for dominating the world!

OK, since we all know Bill Gates is an avid follower of the SI MSFT board, I choose this forum for offering MSFT this surefire way toward world domination :)

Many people suggested offering MSN for free – we know that it is probably economically viable, but I think this misses the point.

Here's my proposal: Let MSFT offer anyone who purchases Windows 2000, free MSN for 1 year. This would have untold benefits.

1) Many people already plan on switching to Win 2000 – now they have a reason to switch to MSN!

2) It won't cost MSFT much, because they can price a bit of this into the price of Win 2000 – given their dominance of the desktop, this slight price increase, spread over all Win 2000 customers, will more than cover those that switch to MSN; meanwhile, because this is the dominant O/S, they can afford to price it a smidgen higher.

3) It will probably be a good incentive to upgrade to Win 2000 for those on the fence – and so increase the sales of Win 2000; it will also provide a greater incentive to choose Win 2000 over Win 98, and so speed the tricky transition to a better, more stable and “future growth” O/S for MSFT.

4) It will obviously explode the growth of MSN – how many people who purchase Win 2000, which will be huge, will forego a free year of MSN?

5) It will DESTROY Linux and most competing O/S. Linux, being a free O/S, cannot afford to offer customers free ISP or anything else – when Dell, IBM, Gateway, Compaq, HP, Micron, etc, make computers with Win2000 which now they can advertise as having a year of free ISP (MSN), how anxious will they be to offer Linux or Solaris or whatever, that gives you NO free ISP? Also it will impact Apple and other O/S that cannot afford to offer free ISP for a year, because they don't own an ISP business

6) It will explode the growth of MSFT internationally on all fronts. It will establish the Win 2000 dominance internationally, and allow for huge sales of application software from MSFT to this captive audience, and it will grow MSN into the world's largest ISP. This will leapfrog AOL, who can't offer the same deal. The biggest challenge MSFT faces, is international growth. The greatest growth potential is not the US, which is *relatively* saturated, but internationally. This will allow MSFT and MSN to dominate and unquestionably lead the software and communications industries worldwide. More on this later.

7) The greater MSN's dominance, the more momentum it will attract – the AOL effect. People will feel it easier to be on the same network that everyone else is, but also, advertisers will pay top dollar to be on MSN, merchants will want to be represented on MSN etc. This will not only dramatically explode MSN revenues, but increase the importance of MSN, because all the “best and coolest and most useful” stuff is featured on MSN, thus increasing the attraction and stickiness and growth of MSN, which in turn fuels the desirability and revenues of MSN – a virtuous cycle.

Now comes the second part of my proposal: extend the same or similar deal across ALL new MSFT software – the deal is “buy this MSFT software and get two months, three months, four months, a year etc. of free MSN [depending on how expensive the software is]”. This will have all the advantages of my Win 2000 proposal, and some more:

8) It will explode the sales of ALL MSFT software all over the world, because when faced with a competing software from Linux or any other software company, a customer will favor MSFT software because of the incentive of free MSN (at *that* point, the dominant, AND best ISP) for a period of time. It will really put a crimp in all competitors.

9) This in turn will solidify MSFT dominance across all software fields MSFT chooses to enter, because there will be such a huge market of established MSFT software users, so there will be even less incentive to buy or develop competing software.

10) The costs again will be limited, because of volume, new customers etc.

11) This will fuel MSN growth even further

12) Now a very important point: IT WILL DRAMATICALLY cut into SOFTWARE PIRACY! This as we all know is a huge and intractable problem, especially internationally. Here, MSFT could really help itself immensely for the first time. Piracy is driven by the desire to “save” on the part of consumers of pirated software, and the profit motive of producers of pirated software. If MSFT offers free MSNfor a period, for every piece of legitimate MSFT software, the consumers will have an incentive to buy real MSFT product. The reasoning is simple: it's almost impossible for most people to scam free ISP – it's a cost, an unavoidable cost, if you want to have access to the net, and particularly the now desirable MSN. So, purely in economic terms, buying the software is a way of paying for the ISP, which you would have to pay for anyway – so now you have the incentive to buy a real certified MSFT product. This also puts the pressure on consumers to make sure they are not purchasing fakes – and so, it will put pressure on the pirates. This would be true all over the world. Even in China, you have to pay for ISP – why not buy MSFT software with all of the advantages of legitimacy in product support etc, and it pays for itself by the free MSN! This will again not only fuel growth of MSN, but cut back on piracy!

13) This would be a huge advantage of MSFT against other software producers. It will be much more profitable to pirate non-MSFT software. Basically, MSFT's competitors would lose a greater PERCENTAGE of sales to pirates than MSFT, because consumers wouldn't have an incentive to avoid non-MSFT pirated software. A competitive advantage for MSFT.

The third part of my proposal would be the boldest. It would require some guts, and vision from MSFT. MSFT already has stakes in many cable providers. Broadband will be a very important part of communications world-wide. I propose that MSFT not dilly-dally, not play around. I propose, that MSFT make a gigantic commitment to dominate the world of future information transfer and processing. Instead of making these half-hearted purchases of parts of cable companies, MSFT should go for the brass ring. Buy 100% of Comcast, and more, and take AT&T and the world of cable head on. Goal: dominate broadband world-wide. I'll address regulatory issues later. For those who think that it is not profitable for MSFT, or lower profit margin, or outside of core competencies etc – you're wrong. Just as AT&T and cable companies make money on it, so can MSFT – except, this will become increasingly important, as thirst for bandwidth is unquenchable. Make no mistake – the demands on bandwidth will only increase, and all data transfer and processing is moving in that direction. This is the future. MSFT must have a piece of it to survive. But MSFT can not only survive, but IMO, dominate. The same advantages it has with MSN, can now be ported over to cable. Offer the same deal to cable customers: anyone who buys new MSFT software, will get 3 months or 4, or whatever period of time [depending on the price of the software], of free time on MSFT CABLE. This will have the same effect, as my proposal for the growth of MSN, the same synergies with software sales etc.

14) MSFT CABLE will grow like a weed, and become the biggest provider of cable world-wide, just as MSN will. It will be a huge competitive advantage against ALL cable providers, such as AT&T etc, because they cannot offer any software at a “discount”. So, MSFT CABLE will grow, and grow, and grow.

15) All MSFT CABLE customers will have a “killer” MSN page that made is the most desirable in the world (see point 7 for how MSN will have the most desirable content). This will be another huge advantage of MSFT CABLE over all other cable service providers – superior content… AT&T won't match the superiority of MSN

16) The same way that MSN fuels the sales of MSFT software, so will MSFT CABLE – but now across the business and corporate world. Business and corporations live on bandwidth. Now MSFT provides it – and gives them a break on the cost, if they buy MSFT software – a huge advantage. Now every IT head will be able to say “the best way to go, is MSFT for both cable and software” – the cost will be incomparable. This will finally put a nail in Linux coffin. Plus, it will discourage the “soft” pirating done by many businesses which buy one copy of MSFT software and illegally copy across many desktops. Now it will make business sense to buy legit software – cuts back on cable cost. Huge growth for MSFT software.

Thus, I see the following: MSFT is in a unique position. It can dominate both the business of connectivity, and data processing, because it has unique advantages. It is a **dominant** software provider – and as such, it can leverage that advantage to outstrip AT&T and other cable providers who cannot match this, because they are not software producers. And MSFT can outstrip software producers and other O/S, because they uniquely can leverage bandwidth access that software producers cannot match – Novel, Linux even Apple, cannot say: we'll give you free ISP by cable or any other means, for any period of time if you buy OUR software – massive competitive disadvantage. And they are so dominant on the desktop, that they can easily pull this off. This kills AOL, it kills AT&T, it kills all software and cable competitors. MSFT can now leverage this advantage across ALL devices that access the net – not just desktop computers – they can port this advantage into Win CE and a bunch of software that deals with the future world of internet computing we can't even conceive of today, and across different handheld, telephone and other devices. Further down the road, MSFT can easily do the same takeover of wireless, satellite and other connectivity. Its future as both software and connectivity provider that dominates the world, would be thus assured.

Regulatory issues. When the US government realizes, that it is in the national interest of the US to have a US business dominate the international market for connectivity and computing, all objections to MSFT will cease. After all, it is not even illegal to be a monopoly – and very much in the interest of US to have a worldwide standard in computing and connectivity that will provide countless jobs for American software programmers and companies (there will always be companies programming for MSFT O/S), and American tech industry in general. This is not an issue of “dominating” the US and inhibiting competition at home – this is an international game, and it is in the US interest, for a US company to win the game. This is a fight for the future. And the future, better be a US future (from our government point of view). Besides, MSFT will operate legally – not as before, by “excluding” competing software (as they are accused of doing with computer manufacturers, browser etc), but rather by competitive “inclusion”, benefit to consumers.

Finally, the last advantage is that as Bill Gates becomes the world's first multitrillionair, he not only won't have to worry whether he has enough money for groceries, but he'll be able to afford a better haircut. And maybe, just maybe, he can afford to purchase a less bland personality – or at least he can procure the services of a better ghostwriter for his next book.

OK, I have a bunch of other ideas for MSFT – but world domination is a good start. Someone send this to Bill Gates – pronto<ggg>.

Morgan
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