Tad -
I would love to see your analysis in some other sectors, to see if your model is consistent, that is, always rooting for the second tier just because there is a first tier.
What I personally find lacking in your specific analysis with regard to the current topic is you tend to assign Intel static attributes, and fail to acknowledge the resources and talents at Intel's disposal, i.e., "if AMD does this, they will be here", as opposed to "if AMD does this, Intel may respond in this manner". Were you saying the same thing about AMD with the Introduction of the K6 iterations? Look how far that got them financially, and observe how Intel responded to the competition with market segmentation, the Celeron, and more recently, the Whitney board. Out of curiosity, how do you explain Intel actually doing something in the face of competiton? By your model, because AMD produced 5 million K6 units in x quarters, they should be reaping the rewards of taking on the Gorrila, no? Hasn't happened, and Intel is a better company for the experience. Now we have the next Great White Hope in the form of the K7, and I read your analysis of AMD, and find that generally omit scanarios in which Intel could respond to the competition, and come out better for it.
BTW, since you acknowledge you've been around for so long, hasn't there always been some form of competion out there that was going to reduce Intel to shards? That's the way I recall it, and it hasn't happened yet. So if I would have listened to the guys like you, I would have likely missed out on all the growth INTC has generated, and my kids would most likely be without the college fund that is enjoyed today.
Just my opinion and my experience Tad. Who knows, maybe you;r're right, and the K7 will roll out, and Intel will be helpless to stop the carnage :-)). I think not.
PB |
