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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL)
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To: Pruguy who wrote (16064)5/9/1999 10:31:00 PM
From: Michael Bakunin  Read Replies (1) of 41369
 
Some "remotely likely" AOL earnings miss scenarios for the next three fiscal quarters, some less remote, some very remote:

1) AT&T puts it together, AOL users switch in droves.
2) Boxmakers adopt GTW-style free ISP; ISP growth slows.
3) Cell phone-style PC giveaways take off, ISP margins shrink.
4) Economy stalls; ISP business tanks with it.
5) Economy roars; expense growth outpace revenue growth.
6) Being 'on the net' falls out of fashion; ISP business slows.
7) Net stocks tank, 'nets can't buy ads, ad revenues fall.
8) Net stocks zoom, issue stock to start ISPs, margins shrink.
9) Return of anti-@aol.com prejudice; subscriber base falls.
a) Y2K blowups, either third-party or AOL internal.
b) DOJ/FTC/EC/? investigates/sues/sanctions AOL
c) AOL restates due to FASB, SEC, or regulatory action.
d) Restatement due to fraud.

-mb

PS - chin up; you'll get the hang of English yet. <g>
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